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Vlašim vs Třinec Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:00

Vlašim

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDL

UPCOMING

Třinec

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.0%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.4%1-110.0%1-25.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.2%3-16.6%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-15.2%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Draw 23.6% 26.3% 3.80 -6.2%

Away win 22.9% 22.2% 4.50 +1.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 41.7% 2.40 -11.9%

BTTS 57.8% 64.5% 1.55 -10.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 64.5% 1.55 -13.5%

Away O1.5 32.5% 35.1% 2.85 -7.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.8%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vlašim2.0

Třinec1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VLAŠIM · PPG 1.63

TŘINEC · PPG 1.19

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vlašim (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.3%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.2%

Třinec (A) 22.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vlašim face Třinec in Czech-Republic - FNL on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vlašim a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Třinec 23%, so Vlašim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Vlašim and 1.1 for Třinec (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vlašim are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.19 for Třinec. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.7%.

Vlašim vs Třinec Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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