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Ústí nad Labem vs Slavia Praha II Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:00

Ústí nad Labem

PPG 2.01 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWW

UPCOMING

Slavia Praha II

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.3%0-22.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.9%1-19.0%1-25.9%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.1%3-16.7%3-24.4%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.8%4+-23.8%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 52.4% 1.91 -2.0%

Draw 21.1% 27.4% 3.65 -13.8%

Away win 27.6% 30.8% 3.25 -6.2%

Over 2.5 65.0% 67.6% 1.48 -3.8%

Over 3.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

BTTS 62.7% 70.4% 1.42 -11.0%

Home O1.5 60.2% 61.7% 1.62 -2.5%

Away O1.5 41.2% 46.5% 2.15 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.7%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 5.9%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ústí nad Labem2.1

Slavia Praha II1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ÚSTÍ NAD LABEM · PPG 2.01

SLAVIA PRAHA II · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ústí nad Labem (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -2.0%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -13.8%

Slavia Praha II (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ústí nad Labem face Slavia Praha II in Czech-Republic - FNL on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ústí nad Labem a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Slavia Praha II 28%, so Ústí nad Labem are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Ústí nad Labem and 1.3 for Slavia Praha II (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ústí nad Labem are averaging 2.01 points per game versus 1.44 for Slavia Praha II. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +8.6%.

Ústí nad Labem vs Slavia Praha II Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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