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Slatina vs Metalul Buzău Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 08:00

Slatina

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Metalul Buzău

PPG 1.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.5%0-24.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.8%1-112.4%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.1%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.6%3-14.5%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 52.4% 1.91 -9.1%

Draw 26.9% 30.8% 3.25 -7.5%

Away win 25.5% 27.4% 3.65 -4.2%

Over 2.5 50.2% 48.8% 2.05 +2.9%

Over 3.5 28.4% 27.0% 3.70 +3.0%

BTTS 53.0% 54.6% 1.83 -3.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 47.6% 2.10 -16.0%

Away O1.5 27.7% 30.3% 3.30 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 2–0✓ 9.4%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slatina1.5

Metalul Buzău1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SLATINA · PPG 1.75

METALUL BUZĂU · PPG 1.84

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.49, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Slatina (H) 47.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -9.1%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.5%

Metalul Buzău (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slatina face Metalul Buzău in Romania - Liga II on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slatina a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Metalul Buzău 26%, so Slatina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Slatina and 1.0 for Metalul Buzău (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slatina are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.84 for Metalul Buzău. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Slatina vs Metalul Buzău Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Match Preview & Prediction

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