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Alverca vs Arouca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 19:15

Alverca

PPG 1.47 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Arouca

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+22.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.2%0-23.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.3%1-110.0%1-26.1%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.2%3-16.3%3-23.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.8%4+-22.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 44.2% 2.26 +22.7%

Draw 22.0% 30.8% 3.25 -28.5%

Away win 23.7% 31.7% 3.15 -25.4%

Over 2.5 61.1% 50.0% 2.00 +22.2%

Over 3.5 38.8% 28.2% 3.55 +37.7%

BTTS 60.3% 56.5% 1.77 +6.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.3%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1✓ 9.7%

#3 1–0 8.3%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alverca1.9

Arouca1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ALVERCA · PPG 1.47

AROUCA · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Alverca (H) 54.3%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +22.7%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -28.5%

Arouca (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alverca face Arouca in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alverca a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Arouca 24%, so Alverca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Alverca and 1.2 for Arouca (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alverca are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.93 for Arouca. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +37.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Alverca vs Arouca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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