Alverca vs Arouca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 31 FC Alverca Sports Complex· Alverca do Ribatejo Friday, April 24, 2026 19:15

Alverca PPG 1.47

2-1 HIT CS2

Arouca PPG 0.93

Over3.5· +37.7% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Alverca face Arouca in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alverca a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Arouca 24%, so Alverca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Alverca and 1.2 for Arouca (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alverca are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.93 for Arouca. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +37.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.3%

Odds: 2.26 EV: +22.7%

Draw 22.0%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -28.5%

Away 23.7%

Odds: 3.15 EV: -25.4%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.1% Odds: 2.00 +22.2%

Over 3.5 38.8% Odds: 3.55 +37.7%

BTTS 60.3% Odds: 1.77 +6.7%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✔

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Alverca

1.94

Arouca

1.22

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +22.2% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+37.7%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 57%

BTTS/No 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -4.3%

Bet Hit 50% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.93)