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Talleres Córdoba Res. vs Instituto Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 22:00

Talleres Córdoba Res.

PPG 1.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

Instituto Res.

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 49.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-17.9%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.2%1-112.2%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.3%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.8%3-14.8%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 54.6% 1.83 -15.1%

Draw 24.7% 30.3% 3.30 -11.1%

Away win 28.9% 26.7% 3.75 +5.0%

Over 2.5 51.8% 46.5% 2.15 +11.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 23.5% 4.25 +34.3%

BTTS 52.9% 49.8% 2.01 +6.3%

Home O1.5 42.6% 44.6% 2.24 -4.6%

Away O1.5 30.1% 25.6% 3.90 +17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Talleres Córdoba Res.1.5

Instituto Res.1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TALLERES CÓRDOBA RES. · PPG 1.08

INSTITUTO RES. · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Talleres Córdoba Res. (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -15.1%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.1%

Instituto Res. (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Talleres Córdoba Res. face Instituto Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Talleres Córdoba Res. a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Instituto Res. 29%, so Talleres Córdoba Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Talleres Córdoba Res. and 1.0 for Instituto Res. (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Talleres Córdoba Res. are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.25 for Instituto Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +34.3%.

Talleres Córdoba Res. vs Instituto Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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