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Argentinos Juniors Res. vs Sarmiento Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 18:00

Argentinos Juniors Res.

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Sarmiento Res.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-19.8%0-23.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.7%1-112.2%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-17.6%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.8%3-13.2%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 57.8% 1.73 -23.9%

Draw 31.3% 30.8% 3.25 +1.7%

Away win 24.7% 23.1% 4.33 +4.2%

Over 2.5 37.2% 44.4% 2.25 -16.3%

Over 3.5 18.5% — — —

BTTS 42.4% — — —

Home O1.5 35.9% — — —

Away O1.5 18.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.4%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.0%

#2 1–0 18.7%

#3 1–1✓ 12.2%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 2–0 11.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentinos Juniors Res.1.2

Sarmiento Res.0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINOS JUNIORS RES. · PPG 1.91

SARMIENTO RES. · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Argentinos Juniors Res. (H) 44.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -23.9%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +1.7%

Sarmiento Res. (A) 24.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentinos Juniors Res. face Sarmiento Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentinos Juniors Res. a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Sarmiento Res. 25%, so Argentinos Juniors Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Argentinos Juniors Res. and 0.7 for Sarmiento Res. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentinos Juniors Res. are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.50 for Sarmiento Res.. This match finished 1-1.

Argentinos Juniors Res. vs Sarmiento Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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