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Gimnasia La Plata Res. vs River Plate Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 18:00

Gimnasia La Plata Res.

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

River Plate Res.

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-114.6%0-26.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.4%1-113.5%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.6%2-16.2%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.0%3-11.9%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 32.3% 3.10 +7.3%

Draw 30.8% 31.3% 3.20 -1.4%

Away win 34.6% 48.8% 2.05 -29.1%

Over 2.5 42.4% 45.5% 2.20 -6.7%

Over 3.5 20.9% — — —

BTTS 48.0% — — —

Home O1.5 30.8% — — —

Away O1.5 26.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

D 31% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.6%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 0–1✓ 14.6%

#4 1–1 13.5%

#5 0–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia La Plata Res.0.9

River Plate Res.0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA LA PLATA RES. · PPG 1.09

RIVER PLATE RES. · PPG 1.62

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.01, combined xG 1.86 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia La Plata Res. (H) 34.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +7.3%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -1.4%

River Plate Res. (A) 34.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -29.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia La Plata Res. face River Plate Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia La Plata Res. a 35% chance, the draw 31% and River Plate Res. 35%, so Gimnasia La Plata Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Gimnasia La Plata Res. and 0.9 for River Plate Res. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia La Plata Res. are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.62 for River Plate Res.. This match finished 0-1.

Gimnasia La Plata Res. vs River Plate Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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