Today / Argentina - Reserve League / Atlético Tucumán Res. vs San Lorenzo Res.

Atlético Tucumán Res. vs San Lorenzo Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:00

Atlético Tucumán Res.

PPG 1.58 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Lorenzo Res.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-110.7%0-26.3%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.0%1-113.1%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.7%2-18.0%2-24.7%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.7%3-13.2%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 40.0% 2.50 -10.8%

Draw 26.2% 31.3% 3.20 -9.7%

Away win 38.1% 40.0% 2.50 -4.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.9% 3.58 +1.7%

BTTS 50.4% 56.2% 1.78 -10.3%

Home O1.5 33.5% 36.8% 2.72 -8.9%

Away O1.5 33.6% 40.0% 2.50 -16.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 15%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.4%

A 38% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–1 10.7%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Tucumán Res.1.2

San Lorenzo Res.1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO TUCUMÁN RES. · PPG 1.58

SAN LORENZO RES. · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Tucumán Res. (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -10.8%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.7%

San Lorenzo Res. (A) 38.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Tucumán Res. face San Lorenzo Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Tucumán Res. a 36% chance, the draw 26% and San Lorenzo Res. 38%, so San Lorenzo Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atlético Tucumán Res. and 1.2 for San Lorenzo Res. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Tucumán Res. are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.50 for San Lorenzo Res.. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.7%.

Atlético Tucumán Res. vs San Lorenzo Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Reserve League Predictions