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Wisla Krakow vs Puszcza Niepolo Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:30

Wisla Krakow

PPG 2.36 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Puszcza Niepolo

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-13.8%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.6%1-18.6%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.9%3-17.2%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-16.8%4+-22.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.0% 65.4% 1.53 +7.1%

Draw 18.1% 26.7% 3.75 -32.1%

Away win 12.0% 20.0% 5.00 -40.0%

Over 2.5 58.8% — — —

Over 3.5 36.4% — — —

BTTS 49.5% 52.4% 1.91 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.5%

H 70% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 1–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 3–0 8.9%

#5 1–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wisla Krakow2.2

Puszcza Niepolo0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WISLA KRAKOW · PPG 2.36

PUSZCZA NIEPOLO · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.36), Away AVERAGE (1.43) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Wisla Krakow (H) 70.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +7.1%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -32.1%

Puszcza Niepolo (A) 12.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -40.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wisla Krakow face Puszcza Niepolo in Poland - I Liga on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wisla Krakow a 70% chance, the draw 18% and Puszcza Niepolo 12%, so Wisla Krakow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Wisla Krakow and 0.8 for Puszcza Niepolo (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wisla Krakow are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.43 for Puszcza Niepolo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Wisla Krakow vs Puszcza Niepolo Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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