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Unión Santa Fe Res. vs Vélez Sársfield Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 18:00

Unión Santa Fe Res.

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Vélez Sársfield Res.

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-114.8%0-28.7%0-33.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.3%1-113.3%1-27.8%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.1%2-16.0%2-23.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.5%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.6% 34.5% 2.90 -8.5%

Draw 27.8% 30.8% 3.25 -5.8%

Away win 42.6% 46.5% 2.15 -8.4%

Over 2.5 43.3% 43.5% 2.30 -0.4%

Over 3.5 22.6% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.8% — — —

Away O1.5 33.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.6%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.8%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–0✓ 12.6%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 0–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Unión Santa Fe Res.0.9

Vélez Sársfield Res.1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.3% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIÓN SANTA FE RES. · PPG 1.75

VÉLEZ SÁRSFIELD RES. · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.28, combined xG 2.07 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Unión Santa Fe Res. (H) 29.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.5%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.8%

Vélez Sársfield Res. (A) 42.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Unión Santa Fe Res. face Vélez Sársfield Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Unión Santa Fe Res. a 30% chance, the draw 28% and Vélez Sársfield Res. 43%, so Vélez Sársfield Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Unión Santa Fe Res. and 1.2 for Vélez Sársfield Res. (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Unión Santa Fe Res. are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.83 for Vélez Sársfield Res.. This match finished 0-0.

Unión Santa Fe Res. vs Vélez Sársfield Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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