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Lanús Res. vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 18:00

Lanús Res.

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Belgrano Córdoba Res.

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.42 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.8%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.3%1-17.2%1-24.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.1%2-19.2%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-17.9%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-19.3%4+-25.3%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.5% 48.8% 2.05 +19.9%

Draw 19.9% 32.3% 3.10 -23.0%

Away win 21.6% 30.8% 3.25 -17.9%

Over 2.5 65.0% 44.4% 2.25 +46.3%

Over 3.5 44.9% — — —

BTTS 61.5% — — —

Home O1.5 66.3% — — —

Away O1.5 33.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.5%

H 58% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 3–1✓ 7.9%

#5 1–2 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lanús Res.2.6

Belgrano Córdoba Res.1.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LANÚS RES. · PPG 2.18

BELGRANO CÓRDOBA RES. · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.42 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lanús Res. (H) 58.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +19.9%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -23.0%

Belgrano Córdoba Res. (A) 21.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lanús Res. face Belgrano Córdoba Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lanús Res. a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Belgrano Córdoba Res. 22%, so Lanús Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Lanús Res. and 1.1 for Belgrano Córdoba Res. (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lanús Res. are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.17 for Belgrano Córdoba Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +46.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Lanús Res. vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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