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NTNUI vs Herd Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:30

NTNUI

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Herd

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-18.0%0-27.4%0-34.6%0-4+3.3%1 1-05.5%1-110.2%1-29.6%1-36.0%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.5%2-16.6%2-26.2%2-33.8%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.5%3-12.8%3-22.6%3-31.6%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.6% — — —

Draw 22.2% — — —

Away win 53.3% — — —

Over 2.5 62.2% — — —

Over 3.5 39.3% — — —

BTTS 60.5% — — —

Home O1.5 37.2% — — —

Away O1.5 56.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1 10.2%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 0–1 8.0%

#5 2–1✓ 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NTNUI1.3

Herd1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NTNUI · PPG 1.12

HERD · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.59 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

NTNUI (H) 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Herd (A) 53.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

NTNUI face Herd in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NTNUI a 25% chance, the draw 22% and Herd 53%, so Herd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for NTNUI and 1.9 for Herd (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NTNUI are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.62 for Herd. This match finished 2-1.

NTNUI vs Herd Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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