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Vard vs Os Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Vard

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.3%0-21.8%0-31.7%0-4+2.3%1 1-01.2%1-13.4%1-24.7%1-34.4%1-4+6.0%2 2-01.5%2-14.3%2-26.0%2-35.6%2-4+7.8%3 3-01.3%3-13.7%3-25.2%3-34.8%3-4+6.7%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-14.4%4+-26.2%4+-35.7%4+-4+7.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% — — —

Draw 16.2% — — —

Away win 47.7% — — —

Over 2.5 83.1% — — —

Over 3.5 64.4% — — —

BTTS 69.6% — — —

Home O1.5 65.8% — — —

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–3 5.6%

#2 2–2 6.0%

#3 3–2 5.2%

#4 1–2✓ 4.7%

#5 1–3 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vard2.6

Os2.8

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.1% · O3.5 PROB 64.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VARD · PPG 2.00

OS · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vard (H) 36.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Os (A) 47.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vard face Os in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vard a 36% chance, the draw 16% and Os 48%, so Os are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Vard and 2.8 for Os (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-3. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vard are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.88 for Os. This match finished 1-2.

Vard vs Os Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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