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Førde vs Stord Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Førde

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Stord

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.54 for Home, form 2.00 vs 1.38 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.0%0-21.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.4%1-15.8%1-23.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.3%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-06.0%3-17.9%3-25.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-111.3%4+-27.5%4+-33.3%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% — — —

Draw 15.3% — — —

Away win 20.7% — — —

Over 2.5 72.0% — — —

Over 3.5 51.8% — — —

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 75.8% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 2–0 6.3%

#4 1–1✓ 5.8%

#5 3–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Førde2.9

Stord1.3

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 51.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FØRDE · PPG 2.00

STORD · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.54 for Home, form 2.00 vs 1.38 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Førde (H) 64.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Stord (A) 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Førde face Stord in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Førde a 64% chance, the draw 15% and Stord 21%, so Førde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Førde and 1.3 for Stord (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Førde are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.38 for Stord. This match finished 1-1.

Førde vs Stord Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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