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Varegg vs Djerv Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 11:00

Varegg

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Djerv

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-18.4%0-28.1%0-35.2%0-4+3.9%1 1-05.2%1-110.1%1-29.8%1-36.3%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.2%2-16.1%2-25.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.3%3-12.4%3-22.4%3-31.5%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.8% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 53.9% — — —

Over 2.5 62.2% — — —

Over 3.5 39.3% — — —

BTTS 60.8% — — —

Home O1.5 32.3% — — —

Away O1.5 56.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2✓ 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.1%

#4 0–1 8.4%

#5 2–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varegg1.2

Djerv1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VAREGG · PPG 1.00

DJERV · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.73 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Varegg (H) 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Djerv (A) 53.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Varegg face Djerv in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varegg a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Djerv 54%, so Djerv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Varegg and 1.9 for Djerv (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varegg are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Djerv. This match finished 1-2.

Varegg vs Djerv Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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