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Orlando City II vs Crown Legacy Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 23:00

Orlando City II

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Crown Legacy

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.2%0-23.6%0-32.7%0-4+2.6%1 1-02.8%1-16.4%1-27.2%1-35.4%1-4+5.1%2 2-02.8%2-16.4%2-27.2%2-35.4%2-4+5.2%3 3-01.9%3-14.3%3-24.8%3-33.6%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-13.4%4+-23.9%4+-32.9%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.8% 27.0% 3.70 +28.8%

Draw 20.5% 28.6% 3.50 -17.0%

Away win 44.8% 57.1% 1.75 -21.6%

Over 2.5 71.4% 69.4% 1.44 +2.8%

Over 3.5 49.4% 48.3% 2.07 +2.3%

BTTS 69.2% 71.4% 1.40 -3.1%

Home O1.5 56.3% 42.0% 2.38 +34.0%

Away O1.5 67.7% 65.8% 1.52 +2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob69.2%

A 45% / xG 2.0-2.3 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.2%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.4%

#5 2–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando City II2.0

Crown Legacy2.3

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO CITY II · PPG 1.45

CROWN LEGACY · PPG 1.67

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orlando City II (H) 34.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +28.8%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -17.0%

Crown Legacy (A) 44.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando City II face Crown Legacy in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando City II a 35% chance, the draw 21% and Crown Legacy 45%, so Crown Legacy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Orlando City II and 2.3 for Crown Legacy (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando City II are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.67 for Crown Legacy. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +74.9%. This match finished 3-2.

Orlando City II vs Crown Legacy Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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