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Houston Dynamo FC II vs Minnesota United II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 23:00

Houston Dynamo FC II

PPG 2.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Minnesota United II

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-13.3%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.7%1-17.8%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.6%2-19.2%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.0%3-17.3%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.4%4+-17.6%4+-22.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.6% 60.6% 1.65 +1.6%

Draw 18.5% 26.7% 3.75 -18.4%

Away win 19.9% 25.0% 4.00 -12.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Over 3.5 36.7% 51.0% 1.96 -28.1%

BTTS 52.7% 71.4% 1.40 -26.2%

Home O1.5 65.8% 69.4% 1.44 -5.3%

Away O1.5 18.2% 42.6% 2.35 -34.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.7%

H 62% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.6%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 3–0 10.0%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Houston Dynamo FC II2.4

Minnesota United II0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HOUSTON DYNAMO FC II · PPG 2.36

MINNESOTA UNITED II · PPG 1.08

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.64 for Home, form 2.36 vs 1.08 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Houston Dynamo FC II (H) 61.6%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV +1.6%

Draw 18.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -18.4%

Minnesota United II (A) 19.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Houston Dynamo FC II face Minnesota United II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Houston Dynamo FC II a 62% chance, the draw 19% and Minnesota United II 20%, so Houston Dynamo FC II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Houston Dynamo FC II and 0.7 for Minnesota United II (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Houston Dynamo FC II are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.08 for Minnesota United II. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Houston Dynamo FC II vs Minnesota United II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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