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Saalfelden vs Schwaz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

West - 26 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:00

Saalfelden

PPG 0.91 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Schwaz

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.91)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-18.6%0-211.1%0-39.5%0-4+11.2%1 1-02.8%1-17.1%1-29.2%1-37.8%1-4+9.3%2 2-01.2%2-13.0%2-23.8%2-33.2%2-4+3.8%3 3-00.3%3-10.8%3-21.0%3-30.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.8% — — —

Draw 15.3% — — —

Away win 74.9% — — —

Over 2.5 65.8% — — —

Over 3.5 43.9% — — —

BTTS 51.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob51.9%

A 75% / xG 0.8-2.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.1%

#2 0–3 9.5%

#3 1–2 9.2%

#4 0–1 8.6%

#5 1–3 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Saalfelden0.8

Schwaz2.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAALFELDEN · PPG 0.91

SCHWAZ · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.91)

Win probability 1X2

Saalfelden (H) 9.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Schwaz (A) 74.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Saalfelden face Schwaz in Austria - Regionalliga - West on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Saalfelden a 10% chance, the draw 15% and Schwaz 75%, so Schwaz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Saalfelden and 2.6 for Schwaz (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Saalfelden are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 1.75 for Schwaz. This match finished 2-0.

Saalfelden vs Schwaz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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