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Podbeskidzie vs Z. Sosnowiec Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 29 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 16:00

Podbeskidzie

PPG 1.69 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Z. Sosnowiec

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.8%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.5%1-17.2%1-24.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.3%2-19.2%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.2%3-17.9%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-19.5%4+-25.3%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.0% 57.1% 1.75 +20.8%

Draw 16.7% 28.6% 3.50 -41.5%

Away win 14.2% 26.3% 3.80 -46.0%

Over 2.5 71.2% — — —

Over 3.5 50.3% — — —

BTTS 61.9% 60.6% 1.65 +2.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.9%

H 69% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 2–0✓ 8.3%

#3 3–1 7.9%

#4 3–0 7.2%

#5 1–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Podbeskidzie2.6

Z. Sosnowiec1.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.2% · O3.5 PROB 50.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PODBESKIDZIE · PPG 1.69

Z. SOSNOWIEC · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Podbeskidzie (H) 69.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +20.8%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -41.5%

Z. Sosnowiec (A) 14.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -46.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Podbeskidzie face Z. Sosnowiec in Poland - II Liga - East on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Podbeskidzie a 69% chance, the draw 17% and Z. Sosnowiec 14%, so Podbeskidzie are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Podbeskidzie and 1.1 for Z. Sosnowiec (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Podbeskidzie are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.14 for Z. Sosnowiec. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Podbeskidzie vs Z. Sosnowiec Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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