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Znicz Pruszkow vs Gornik Leczna Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 16:00

Znicz Pruszkow

PPG 0.57 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gornik Leczna

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.7%0-25.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.8%1 1-06.3%1-110.4%1-28.6%1-34.7%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.1%2-26.7%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.6%3-14.2%3-23.5%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 50.0% 2.00 -27.0%

Draw 23.4% 31.3% 3.20 -25.1%

Away win 40.1% 30.8% 3.25 +30.3%

Over 2.5 62.1% — — —

Over 3.5 39.8% — — —

BTTS 63.7% 59.9% 1.67 +6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.7%

A 40% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–1 6.7%

#5 2–2✓ 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Znicz Pruszkow1.6

Gornik Leczna1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ZNICZ PRUSZKOW · PPG 0.57

GORNIK LECZNA · PPG 0.71

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.57), Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Znicz Pruszkow (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -27.0%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -25.1%

Gornik Leczna (A) 40.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Znicz Pruszkow face Gornik Leczna in Poland - I Liga on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Znicz Pruszkow a 37% chance, the draw 23% and Gornik Leczna 40%, so Gornik Leczna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Znicz Pruszkow and 1.6 for Gornik Leczna (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Znicz Pruszkow are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 0.71 for Gornik Leczna. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Znicz Pruszkow vs Gornik Leczna Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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