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Connecticut FC vs New York RB II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:00

Connecticut FC logo
Connecticut FC
PPG 1.58 · HOME
LAST 5
LWWWL
2 – 4
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
New York RB II logo
New York RB II
PPG 1.50 · AWAY
LAST 5
LWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.5%0-22.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-04.9%1-17.8%1-26.1%1-33.2%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.5%2-18.7%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-04.1%3-16.5%3-25.1%3-32.7%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-16.1%4+-24.9%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.4%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 49.9% 44.4% 2.25 +12.3%
Draw 21.5% 27.8% 3.60 -13.6%
Away win 28.5% 41.7% 2.40 -19.0%
Over 2.5 68.2% 73.5% 1.36 -7.2%
Over 3.5 48.2% 53.5% 1.87 -9.9%
BTTS 63.1% 76.9% 1.30 -18.0%
Home O1.5 65.8% 60.2% 1.66 +9.2%
Away O1.5 47.9% 57.5% 1.74 -16.7%

League track record

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%
O2.5 77%
BTTS 57%
Score Hit 24%
ROI 9.8%
Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 2-4
xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.1%

H 50% / xG 2.2-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%
#2 2–1 8.7%
#3 1–2 6.1%
#4 2–2 6.9%
#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Connecticut FC2.2
New York RB II1.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CONNECTICUT FC · PPG 1.58

NEW YORK RB II · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Connecticut FC (H) 49.9%
ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +12.3%
Draw 21.5%
ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.6%
New York RB II (A) 28.5%
ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Connecticut FC face New York RB II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Connecticut FC a 50% chance, the draw 22% and New York RB II 28%, so Connecticut FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Connecticut FC and 1.6 for New York RB II (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Connecticut FC are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.50 for New York RB II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.0%. This match finished 2-4.

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