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Chattanooga vs Carolina Core Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:00

Chattanooga

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Carolina Core

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.2%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.0%1-17.7%1-23.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-19.5%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.1%3-17.8%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-18.6%4+-24.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.9% 61.7% 1.62 -6.2%

Draw 20.1% 27.8% 3.60 -16.6%

Away win 22.0% 23.1% 4.33 -2.8%

Over 2.5 64.2% 66.7% 1.50 -3.7%

Over 3.5 43.2% 46.7% 2.14 -7.5%

BTTS 59.9% 66.7% 1.50 -10.2%

Home O1.5 65.8% 68.0% 1.47 -3.3%

Away O1.5 26.1% 36.8% 2.72 -17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.9%

H 58% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 1–2 3.7%

#5 3–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chattanooga2.5

Carolina Core1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHATTANOOGA · PPG 2.17

CAROLINA CORE · PPG 0.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.49 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chattanooga (H) 57.9%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -6.2%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -16.6%

Carolina Core (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chattanooga face Carolina Core in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chattanooga a 58% chance, the draw 20% and Carolina Core 22%, so Chattanooga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Chattanooga and 1.0 for Carolina Core (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chattanooga are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.36 for Carolina Core. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 5-2.

Chattanooga vs Carolina Core Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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