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Tucuman Central vs Boca Unidos Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Tucuman Central

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Boca Unidos

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 46.3% — a clear edge.

+29.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.4%0-23.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.2%1-111.1%1-26.6%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.6%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.6%3-15.6%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.6%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 42.0% 2.38 +9.5%

Draw 23.9% 35.5% 2.82 -19.6%

Away win 30.1% 33.8% 2.96 -10.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 37.6% 2.66 +58.8%

Over 3.5 36.7% 18.5% 5.40 +98.2%

BTTS 59.9% 46.3% 2.16 +29.4%

Home O1.5 48.9% 33.6% 2.98 +45.7%

Away O1.5 36.0% 27.9% 3.58 +28.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.9%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–2 6.6%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tucuman Central1.7

Boca Unidos1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TUCUMAN CENTRAL · PPG 1.80

BOCA UNIDOS · PPG 0.90

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tucuman Central (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +9.5%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -19.6%

Boca Unidos (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tucuman Central face Boca Unidos in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tucuman Central a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Boca Unidos 30%, so Tucuman Central are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Tucuman Central and 1.2 for Boca Unidos (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tucuman Central are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.90 for Boca Unidos. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +98.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Tucuman Central vs Boca Unidos Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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