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Vrchovina vs Karviná II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:30

Vrchovina

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Karviná II

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.0%0-24.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.9%1-110.6%1-27.1%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.2%3-15.5%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.7%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 51.3% 1.95 -11.1%

Draw 24.6% 30.8% 3.25 -12.0%

Away win 29.8% 30.3% 3.30 -1.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 38.6% 2.59 -5.0%

BTTS 60.0% 62.5% 1.60 -4.0%

Home O1.5 48.9% 54.9% 1.82 -11.0%

Away O1.5 40.9% 38.9% 2.57 +5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 35.9%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.0%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 1–0✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vrchovina1.8

Karviná II1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VRCHOVINA · PPG 1.79

KARVINÁ II · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vrchovina (H) 45.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -11.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.0%

Karviná II (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vrchovina face Karviná II in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vrchovina a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Karviná II 30%, so Vrchovina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Vrchovina and 1.3 for Karviná II (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vrchovina are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.04 for Karviná II. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Vrchovina vs Karviná II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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