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Hodonín vs Vítkovice Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:30

Hodonín

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vítkovice

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.3%0-23.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.3%1-111.0%1-26.5%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.6%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.7%3-15.6%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 59.9% 1.67 -21.5%

Draw 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

Away win 28.4% 23.8% 4.20 +11.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 59.9% 1.67 -10.7%

Over 3.5 32.1% 40.2% 2.49 -20.1%

BTTS 55.0% 61.7% 1.62 -10.9%

Home O1.5 48.9% 61.3% 1.63 -20.3%

Away O1.5 34.1% 32.9% 3.04 +3.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 35.9%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.0%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hodonín1.7

Vítkovice1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HODONÍN · PPG 1.33

VÍTKOVICE · PPG 1.01

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hodonín (H) 47.0%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -21.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.0%

Vítkovice (A) 28.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hodonín face Vítkovice in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hodonín a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Vítkovice 28%, so Hodonín are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Hodonín and 1.2 for Vítkovice (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hodonín are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.01 for Vítkovice. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Hodonín vs Vítkovice Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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