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Gloria Bistriţa vs CSM Satu Mare Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 08:00

Gloria Bistriţa

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

CSM Satu Mare

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-16.3%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.0%1-111.0%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.7%3-15.7%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 66.7% 1.50 -19.6%

Draw 24.5% 25.3% 3.95 -1.9%

Away win 21.8% 18.2% 5.50 +11.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 60.6% 1.65 -16.7%

Over 3.5 28.9% 38.5% 2.60 -14.9%

BTTS 49.5% 59.9% 1.67 -17.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 65.4% 1.53 -25.2%

Away O1.5 23.6% 29.4% 3.40 -11.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.5%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–0 11.4%

#3 1–0✓ 13.0%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gloria Bistriţa1.8

CSM Satu Mare0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GLORIA BISTRIŢA · PPG 1.47

CSM SATU MARE · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gloria Bistriţa (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -19.6%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -1.9%

CSM Satu Mare (A) 21.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gloria Bistriţa face CSM Satu Mare in Romania - Liga II on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gloria Bistriţa a 54% chance, the draw 25% and CSM Satu Mare 22%, so Gloria Bistriţa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Gloria Bistriţa and 0.8 for CSM Satu Mare (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gloria Bistriţa are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.95 for CSM Satu Mare. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Gloria Bistriţa vs CSM Satu Mare Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Match Preview & Prediction

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