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Metalul Buzău vs Chindia Targoviste Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 08:00

Metalul Buzău

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chindia Targoviste

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.0%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.6%1-112.2%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.3%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-14.8%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 40.8% 2.45 +12.5%

Draw 24.5% 32.3% 3.10 -14.4%

Away win 29.6% 37.0% 2.70 -12.0%

Over 2.5 53.1% 46.5% 2.15 +14.2%

Over 3.5 31.4% 25.3% 3.95 +24.0%

BTTS 54.3% 54.6% 1.83 -0.6%

Home O1.5 41.5% 39.2% 2.55 +5.8%

Away O1.5 32.6% 36.4% 2.75 -10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.3%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metalul Buzău1.5

Chindia Targoviste1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

METALUL BUZĂU · PPG 1.83

CHINDIA TARGOVISTE · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Metalul Buzău (H) 45.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +12.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.4%

Chindia Targoviste (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metalul Buzău face Chindia Targoviste in Romania - Liga II on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metalul Buzău a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Chindia Targoviste 30%, so Metalul Buzău are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Metalul Buzău and 1.0 for Chindia Targoviste (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metalul Buzău are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.30 for Chindia Targoviste. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Metalul Buzău vs Chindia Targoviste Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Match Preview & Prediction

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