Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / St. Louis City II vs North Texas

St. Louis City II vs North Texas Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 00:00

St. Louis City II

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDD

UPCOMING

North Texas

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.8%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.1%1-110.7%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.7%3-16.0%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.2%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 71.4% 1.40 -26.4%

Draw 24.0% 23.8% 4.20 +0.5%

Away win 23.4% 16.7% 6.00 +24.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 66.7% 1.50 -19.8%

Over 3.5 31.5% 47.2% 2.12 -33.2%

BTTS 54.1% 62.5% 1.60 -13.4%

Home O1.5 54.9% 72.5% 1.38 -24.2%

Away O1.5 32.6% 29.9% 3.34 +8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.1%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Louis City II1.8

North Texas1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. LOUIS CITY II · PPG 1.58

NORTH TEXAS · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

St. Louis City II (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -26.4%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.5%

North Texas (A) 23.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Louis City II face North Texas in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Louis City II a 53% chance, the draw 24% and North Texas 23%, so St. Louis City II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for St. Louis City II and 1.1 for North Texas (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Louis City II are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.00 for North Texas. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +31.1%.

St. Louis City II vs North Texas Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Next Pro Predictions