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Toronto II vs New York City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 23:00

Toronto II

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

New York City II

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.5%0-23.8%0-32.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-05.2%1-18.7%1-27.3%1-34.1%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.0%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.3%3-15.5%3-24.6%3-32.6%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.2%4+-23.5%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% 46.5% 2.15 -7.3%

Draw 21.7% 30.3% 3.30 -17.0%

Away win 35.2% 36.4% 2.75 -3.2%

Over 2.5 68.2% 69.4% 1.44 -1.8%

Over 3.5 47.2% 49.5% 2.02 -4.7%

BTTS 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Home O1.5 56.3% 58.5% 1.71 -3.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 51.8% 1.93 -7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.1%

H 43% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toronto II1.9

New York City II1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TORONTO II · PPG 1.70

NEW YORK CITY II · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Toronto II (H) 43.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -7.3%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.0%

New York City II (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toronto II face New York City II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toronto II a 43% chance, the draw 22% and New York City II 35%, so Toronto II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Toronto II and 1.7 for New York City II (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toronto II are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.18 for New York City II. This match finished 2-0.

Toronto II vs New York City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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