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Frýdek-Místek vs Sigma Olomouc II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:30

Frýdek-Místek

PPG 2.16 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sigma Olomouc II

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-18.3%0-27.1%0-34.1%0-4+2.6%1 1-06.3%1-110.8%1-29.4%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.1%2-17.1%2-26.1%2-33.5%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.8%3-13.1%3-22.7%3-31.5%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 32.3% 3.10 -4.8%

Draw 23.7% 32.3% 3.10 -15.9%

Away win 45.6% 48.8% 2.05 -6.5%

Over 2.5 60.7% 58.8% 1.70 +3.2%

Over 3.5 38.0% 39.7% 2.52 -4.2%

BTTS 60.8% 64.5% 1.55 -5.8%

Home O1.5 37.2% 41.7% 2.40 -10.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 53.5% 1.87 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 35.9%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.8%

A 46% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 0–2 7.1%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Frýdek-Místek1.3

Sigma Olomouc II1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FRÝDEK-MÍSTEK · PPG 2.16

SIGMA OLOMOUC II · PPG 2.13

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Frýdek-Místek (H) 30.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.8%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.9%

Sigma Olomouc II (A) 45.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Frýdek-Místek face Sigma Olomouc II in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Frýdek-Místek a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Sigma Olomouc II 46%, so Sigma Olomouc II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Frýdek-Místek and 1.7 for Sigma Olomouc II (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Frýdek-Místek are averaging 2.16 points per game versus 2.13 for Sigma Olomouc II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Frýdek-Místek vs Sigma Olomouc II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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