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Itabirito U20 vs Coimbra U20 Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro U20

Winners Stage · Matchday 7 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 13:00

Itabirito U20

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Coimbra U20

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-19.5%0-24.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.3%1-112.8%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-18.6%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.3%3-13.9%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 40.8% 2.45 +13.7%

Draw 26.9% 29.4% 3.40 -5.1%

Away win 26.8% 40.8% 2.45 -20.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 54.1% 1.85 -6.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 34.2% 2.92 -9.7%

BTTS 52.7% 61.3% 1.63 -14.1%

Home O1.5 37.9% 44.1% 2.27 -14.0%

Away O1.5 25.7% 44.1% 2.27 -25.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Itabirito U201.3

Coimbra U200.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ITABIRITO U20 · PPG 2.00

COIMBRA U20 · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.45, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Itabirito U20 (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +13.7%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.1%

Coimbra U20 (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Itabirito U20 face Coimbra U20 in Brazil - Mineiro U20 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Itabirito U20 a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Coimbra U20 27%, so Itabirito U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Itabirito U20 and 0.9 for Coimbra U20 (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Itabirito U20 are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Coimbra U20. This match finished 0-1.

Itabirito U20 vs Coimbra U20 Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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