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Itabirito U20 vs Athletic Club MG U20 Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro U20

Winners Stage - 3 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 13:00

Itabirito U20

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Athletic Club MG U20

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-110.0%0-25.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.2%1-112.9%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.2%2-18.3%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.1%3-13.6%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 29.4% 3.40 +51.3%

Draw 26.6% 28.6% 3.50 -4.1%

Away win 28.9% 52.6% 1.90 -27.1%

Over 2.5 50.6% 54.1% 1.85 -6.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% 34.2% 2.92 -9.4%

BTTS 55.3% 59.5% 1.68 -7.1%

Home O1.5 38.1% 34.2% 2.92 +11.3%

Away O1.5 36.5% 52.6% 1.90 -30.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.3%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Itabirito U201.3

Athletic Club MG U201.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ITABIRITO U20 · PPG 2.17

ATHLETIC CLUB MG U20 · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.14, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Itabirito U20 (H) 44.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +51.3%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.1%

Athletic Club MG U20 (A) 28.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -27.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Itabirito U20 face Athletic Club MG U20 in Brazil - Mineiro U20 on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Itabirito U20 a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Athletic Club MG U20 29%, so Itabirito U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Itabirito U20 and 1.2 for Athletic Club MG U20 (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Itabirito U20 are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 2.00 for Athletic Club MG U20. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +11.3%.

Itabirito U20 vs Athletic Club MG U20 Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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