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Cruzeiro U20 vs América Mineiro U20 Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro U20

Winners Stage - 3 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:00

Cruzeiro U20

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

América Mineiro U20

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+30.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.3%0-21.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.1%1-16.4%1-24.0%1-31.6%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.0%2-18.7%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.4%3-17.9%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-110.5%4+-26.5%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.9% 58.8% 1.70 -1.6%

Draw 21.0% 28.6% 3.50 -15.9%

Away win 21.1% 24.4% 4.10 -8.1%

Over 2.5 67.0% 51.3% 1.95 +30.6%

Over 3.5 44.9% 31.8% 3.14 +41.0%

BTTS 63.5% 55.2% 1.81 +14.9%

Home O1.5 64.0% 54.3% 1.84 +17.8%

Away O1.5 36.5% 28.6% 3.50 +27.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.5%

H 58% / xG 2.7-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 6.4%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 3–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruzeiro U202.7

América Mineiro U201.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZEIRO U20 · PPG 2.60

AMÉRICA MINEIRO U20 · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.49 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cruzeiro U20 (H) 57.9%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -1.6%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.9%

América Mineiro U20 (A) 21.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruzeiro U20 face América Mineiro U20 in Brazil - Mineiro U20 on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruzeiro U20 a 58% chance, the draw 21% and América Mineiro U20 21%, so Cruzeiro U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Cruzeiro U20 and 1.2 for América Mineiro U20 (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruzeiro U20 are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.67 for América Mineiro U20. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +41.0%.

Cruzeiro U20 vs América Mineiro U20 Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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