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Independiente Petrolero vs Guabirá Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 17 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 22:30

Independiente Petrolero

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Guabirá

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.2%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.2%1-110.2%1-25.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.8%3-16.4%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.9%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 52.4% 1.91 -3.2%

Draw 22.8% 26.7% 3.75 -8.7%

Away win 26.5% 31.3% 3.20 -9.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Over 3.5 36.7% 45.5% 2.20 -19.3%

BTTS 55.0% 70.4% 1.42 -21.9%

Home O1.5 56.3% 60.6% 1.65 -7.1%

Away O1.5 33.0% 45.5% 2.20 -27.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -21.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–2 5.6%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Petrolero2.0

Guabirá1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE PETROLERO · PPG 1.38

GUABIRÁ · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Petrolero (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -3.2%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.7%

Guabirá (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Petrolero face Guabirá in Bolivia - Primera División on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Petrolero a 51% chance, the draw 23% and Guabirá 27%, so Independiente Petrolero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Independiente Petrolero and 1.1 for Guabirá (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Petrolero are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Guabirá. This match finished 3-1.

Independiente Petrolero vs Guabirá Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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