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Real Oruro vs Bolívar Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Real Oruro

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bolívar

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.6%0-24.6%0-33.9%0-4+4.5%1 1-02.4%1-16.2%1-27.8%1-36.6%1-4+7.8%2 2-02.1%2-15.3%2-26.7%2-35.7%2-4+6.7%3 3-01.2%3-13.0%3-23.9%3-33.3%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.9%4+-22.4%4+-32.1%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% 15.4% 6.50 +44.1%

Draw 19.2% 21.1% 4.75 -5.3%

Away win 54.1% 73.5% 1.36 -26.4%

Over 2.5 71.8% 76.9% 1.30 -6.7%

Over 3.5 50.3% 57.8% 1.73 -13.0%

BTTS 69.0% 69.4% 1.44 -0.6%

Home O1.5 48.8% 36.4% 2.75 +34.2%

Away O1.5 65.4% 80.0% 1.25 -18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -21.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob69.0%

A 54% / xG 1.7-2.5 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.8%

#2 1–1 6.2%

#3 1–3 6.6%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Oruro1.7

Bolívar2.5

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 50.3%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL ORURO · PPG 1.00

BOLÍVAR · PPG 1.57

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.83 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Oruro (H) 26.7%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +44.1%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -5.3%

Bolívar (A) 54.1%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -26.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Oruro face Bolívar in Bolivia - Primera División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Oruro a 27% chance, the draw 19% and Bolívar 54%, so Bolívar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Real Oruro and 2.5 for Bolívar (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Oruro are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.57 for Bolívar. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +58.2%. This match finished 2-4.

Real Oruro vs Bolívar Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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