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Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Oriente Petrolero Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 17 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 19:00

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Oriente Petrolero

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.8%0-25.6%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.6%1-112.3%1-27.9%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.7%2-18.6%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.1%3-14.0%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 51.3% 1.95 -28.8%

Draw 24.7% 26.7% 3.75 -4.4%

Away win 38.8% 31.3% 3.20 +24.2%

Over 2.5 54.0% 67.6% 1.48 -20.1%

Over 3.5 35.9% 45.5% 2.20 -21.0%

BTTS 55.0% 70.4% 1.42 -21.9%

Home O1.5 39.8% 60.6% 1.65 -34.3%

Away O1.5 36.6% 46.5% 2.15 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -21.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.0%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 0–1 8.8%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gualberto Villarroel SJ1.4

Oriente Petrolero1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GUALBERTO VILLARROEL SJ · PPG 1.12

ORIENTE PETROLERO · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (H) 36.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -28.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.4%

Oriente Petrolero (A) 38.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gualberto Villarroel SJ face Oriente Petrolero in Bolivia - Primera División on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gualberto Villarroel SJ a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Oriente Petrolero 39%, so Oriente Petrolero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ and 1.3 for Oriente Petrolero (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gualberto Villarroel SJ are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.88 for Oriente Petrolero. This match finished 3-3.

Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Oriente Petrolero Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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