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Guabirá vs Blooming Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 21:15

Guabirá

PPG 2.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Blooming

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.1%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.2%1-110.0%1-24.9%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-110.0%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.7%3-16.6%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-15.2%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 55.6% 1.80 +0.4%

Draw 22.3% 25.6% 3.90 -7.8%

Away win 21.9% 28.6% 3.50 -14.0%

Over 2.5 53.9% 69.0% 1.45 -21.8%

Over 3.5 34.6% 46.5% 2.15 -25.6%

BTTS 54.7% 70.4% 1.42 -22.3%

Home O1.5 54.9% 64.5% 1.55 -14.9%

Away O1.5 28.6% 43.5% 2.30 -20.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -21.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.0%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 10.0%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guabirá2.0

Blooming1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GUABIRÁ · PPG 2.29

BLOOMING · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guabirá (H) 55.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +0.4%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.8%

Blooming (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guabirá face Blooming in Bolivia - Primera División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guabirá a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Blooming 22%, so Guabirá are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Guabirá and 1.0 for Blooming (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guabirá are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.71 for Blooming. This match finished 1-1.

Guabirá vs Blooming Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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