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Universitario de Vinto vs Nacional Potosí Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 17 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 23:00

Universitario de Vinto

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Nacional Potosí

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-16.6%0-25.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.0%1-110.7%1-28.1%1-34.1%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.6%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.1%3-14.7%3-23.5%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.7%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 41.7% 2.40 -14.8%

Draw 22.7% 27.4% 3.65 -10.3%

Away win 41.8% 41.7% 2.40 +0.3%

Over 2.5 62.0% 64.5% 1.55 -3.9%

Over 3.5 39.3% 41.7% 2.40 -5.7%

BTTS 60.8% 69.0% 1.45 -11.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 51.3% 1.95 -4.6%

Away O1.5 46.4% 51.3% 1.95 -9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -21.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.8%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 0–2 5.0%

#5 0–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universitario de Vinto1.6

Nacional Potosí1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSITARIO DE VINTO · PPG 1.00

NACIONAL POTOSÍ · PPG 0.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Universitario de Vinto (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -14.8%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.3%

Nacional Potosí (A) 41.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universitario de Vinto face Nacional Potosí in Bolivia - Primera División on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universitario de Vinto a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Nacional Potosí 42%, so Nacional Potosí are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Universitario de Vinto and 1.5 for Nacional Potosí (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universitario de Vinto are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.62 for Nacional Potosí. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Universitario de Vinto vs Nacional Potosí Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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