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Central Córdoba SdE Res. vs Ferro 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 20:00

Central Córdoba SdE Res.

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ferro 2

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.7%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.0%1-112.5%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.0%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.3%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 51.3% 1.95 -6.6%

Draw 25.8% 34.5% 2.90 -15.1%

Away win 26.3% 27.8% 3.60 -3.2%

Over 2.5 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Over 3.5 28.8% 27.0% 3.70 +3.9%

BTTS 52.7% 54.1% 1.85 -2.5%

Home O1.5 40.1% 46.7% 2.14 -14.2%

Away O1.5 32.6% 29.2% 3.42 +11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–1✓ 9.0%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Córdoba SdE Res.1.4

Ferro 21.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL CÓRDOBA SDE RES. · PPG 1.36

FERRO 2 · PPG 0.73

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Central Córdoba SdE Res. (H) 47.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -6.6%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -15.1%

Ferro 2 (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Córdoba SdE Res. face Ferro 2 in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Córdoba SdE Res. a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Ferro 2 26%, so Central Córdoba SdE Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Central Córdoba SdE Res. and 1.0 for Ferro 2 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Córdoba SdE Res. are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.73 for Ferro 2. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Central Córdoba SdE Res. vs Ferro 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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