Today / Argentina - Reserve League / Tigre Res. vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2

Tigre Res. vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 18:00

Tigre Res.

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Gimnasia Mendoza 2

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-112.3%0-25.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.3%1-113.4%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.3%2-17.2%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.0%3-12.6%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 36.4% 2.75 +16.1%

Draw 29.3% 34.5% 2.90 -9.0%

Away win 28.5% 43.5% 2.30 -20.7%

Over 2.5 43.1% 42.0% 2.38 +2.6%

Over 3.5 20.7% 25.8% 3.88 -11.8%

BTTS 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

Home O1.5 30.9% 35.2% 2.84 -12.2%

Away O1.5 25.1% 39.4% 2.54 -21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 0–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tigre Res.1.1

Gimnasia Mendoza 20.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TIGRE RES. · PPG 1.25

GIMNASIA MENDOZA 2 · PPG 1.09

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 1.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tigre Res. (H) 42.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +16.1%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.0%

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tigre Res. face Gimnasia Mendoza 2 in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tigre Res. a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Gimnasia Mendoza 2 28%, so Tigre Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Tigre Res. and 0.9 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tigre Res. are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.09 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Tigre Res. vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Reserve League Predictions