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Rosario Central Res. vs Barracas Central Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 18:00

Rosario Central Res.

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Barracas Central Res.

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-15.2%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.1%1-19.6%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-18.8%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.1%3-15.4%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-13.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 69.4% 1.44 -14.3%

Draw 23.9% 27.0% 3.70 -6.9%

Away win 16.6% 16.7% 6.00 -0.2%

Over 2.5 50.5% 48.1% 2.08 +5.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.5% 3.08 -7.0%

BTTS 47.2% 52.4% 1.91 -9.8%

Home O1.5 56.2% 61.7% 1.62 -9.0%

Away O1.5 16.7% 20.8% 4.80 -11.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 60% / xG 1.8-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.8%

#2 1–0 16.1%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 3–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosario Central Res.1.8

Barracas Central Res.0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSARIO CENTRAL RES. · PPG 1.58

BARRACAS CENTRAL RES. · PPG 0.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rosario Central Res. (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -14.3%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.9%

Barracas Central Res. (A) 16.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosario Central Res. face Barracas Central Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosario Central Res. a 60% chance, the draw 24% and Barracas Central Res. 17%, so Rosario Central Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Rosario Central Res. and 0.6 for Barracas Central Res. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosario Central Res. are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.55 for Barracas Central Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Rosario Central Res. vs Barracas Central Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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