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Deportivo Riestra Res. vs Defensa y Justicia Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Riestra Res.

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Defensa y Justicia Res.

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+18.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.4%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.4%1-110.4%1-25.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.7%3-16.3%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.6%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 40.0% 2.50 +32.0%

Draw 23.7% 34.7% 2.88 -19.1%

Away win 23.5% 38.2% 2.62 -23.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 45.5% 2.20 +18.4%

Over 3.5 35.7% 26.3% 3.80 +35.7%

BTTS 54.5% 55.6% 1.80 -1.9%

Home O1.5 56.3% 39.4% 2.54 +43.0%

Away O1.5 33.0% 37.3% 2.68 -11.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Riestra Res.1.9

Defensa y Justicia Res.1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO RIESTRA RES. · PPG 1.91

DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA RES. · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Riestra Res. (H) 52.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +32.0%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -19.1%

Defensa y Justicia Res. (A) 23.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Riestra Res. face Defensa y Justicia Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Riestra Res. a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Defensa y Justicia Res. 24%, so Deportivo Riestra Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Deportivo Riestra Res. and 1.1 for Defensa y Justicia Res. (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Riestra Res. are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.25 for Defensa y Justicia Res.. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +51.6%. This match finished 3-3.

Deportivo Riestra Res. vs Defensa y Justicia Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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