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Belgrano Córdoba Res. vs Newell's Old Boys Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 17:00

Belgrano Córdoba Res.

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Newell's Old Boys Res.

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.1%0-25.5%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.4%1-112.5%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-18.6%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.3%3-14.0%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 44.4% 2.25 -2.1%

Draw 27.1% 34.7% 2.88 -13.2%

Away win 29.4% 34.5% 2.90 -8.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +3.7%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 38.1% 42.6% 2.35 -10.5%

Away O1.5 36.0% 34.6% 2.89 +4.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 0–0 7.6%

#5 2–0✓ 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belgrano Córdoba Res.1.4

Newell's Old Boys Res.1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BELGRANO CÓRDOBA RES. · PPG 1.91

NEWELL'S OLD BOYS RES. · PPG 1.15

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Belgrano Córdoba Res. (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -2.1%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -13.2%

Newell's Old Boys Res. (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belgrano Córdoba Res. face Newell's Old Boys Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belgrano Córdoba Res. a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Newell's Old Boys Res. 29%, so Belgrano Córdoba Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Belgrano Córdoba Res. and 1.2 for Newell's Old Boys Res. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belgrano Córdoba Res. are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.15 for Newell's Old Boys Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Belgrano Córdoba Res. vs Newell's Old Boys Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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