Today / Bolivia - Primera División / Real Potosí vs Real Tomayapo

Real Potosí vs Real Tomayapo Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 17 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 22:30

Real Potosí

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Real Tomayapo

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-11.8%0-20.4%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.8%1-14.9%1-20.9%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.0%2-16.5%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-015.0%3-15.7%3-21.1%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-018.7%4+-17.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.3% 73.5% 1.36 +1.1%

Draw 17.1% 21.7% 4.60 -12.8%

Away win 8.7% 14.7% 6.80 -24.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 70.4% 1.42 -24.0%

Over 3.5 34.6% 48.8% 2.05 -29.1%

BTTS 42.6% 63.7% 1.57 -33.1%

Home O1.5 65.8% 75.2% 1.33 -12.5%

Away O1.5 11.1% 30.3% 3.30 -38.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -21.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob42.6%

H 74% / xG 2.6-0.4 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.0%

#2 3–0 15.0%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 4–0 9.9%

#5 1–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Potosí2.6

Real Tomayapo0.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL POTOSÍ · PPG 1.88

REAL TOMAYAPO · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.27 for Home, form 1.88 vs 0.38 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Real Potosí (H) 74.3%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV +1.1%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -12.8%

Real Tomayapo (A) 8.7%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV -24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Potosí face Real Tomayapo in Bolivia - Primera División on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Potosí a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Real Tomayapo 9%, so Real Potosí are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Real Potosí and 0.4 for Real Tomayapo (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Potosí are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.38 for Real Tomayapo. This match finished 0-1.

Real Potosí vs Real Tomayapo Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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