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San Lorenzo Res. vs Godoy Cruz Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 18:00

San Lorenzo Res.

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Godoy Cruz Res.

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.5%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.5%1-111.3%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.7%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.2%3-15.6%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 54.6% 1.83 -5.2%

Draw 25.1% 31.3% 3.20 -11.8%

Away win 23.1% 26.7% 3.75 -8.0%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.3% 1.95 -1.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.4%

BTTS 50.7% 52.4% 1.91 -3.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 49.0% 2.04 -0.2%

Away O1.5 25.7% 26.7% 3.75 -2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.7%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 2–0 10.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Lorenzo Res.1.7

Godoy Cruz Res.0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN LORENZO RES. · PPG 1.27

GODOY CRUZ RES. · PPG 0.45

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Lorenzo Res. (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -5.2%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.8%

Godoy Cruz Res. (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Lorenzo Res. face Godoy Cruz Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Lorenzo Res. a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Godoy Cruz Res. 23%, so San Lorenzo Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for San Lorenzo Res. and 0.9 for Godoy Cruz Res. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Lorenzo Res. are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.45 for Godoy Cruz Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 3-0.

San Lorenzo Res. vs Godoy Cruz Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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