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Estudiantes La Plata Res vs Boca Juniors Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 18:00

Estudiantes La Plata Res

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Boca Juniors Res.

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-113.8%0-26.6%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.1%1-113.5%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.9%2-16.6%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.3%3-12.2%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 34.5% 2.90 +12.5%

Draw 31.9% 31.3% 3.20 +2.1%

Away win 29.3% 46.5% 2.15 -22.2%

Over 2.5 38.5% 40.0% 2.50 -3.8%

Over 3.5 20.5% 22.0% 4.55 -4.0%

BTTS 47.2% 50.3% 1.99 -6.1%

Home O1.5 30.9% 27.9% 3.58 +10.6%

Away O1.5 25.7% 41.2% 2.43 -22.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.4%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 1–1 13.5%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estudiantes La Plata Res1.0

Boca Juniors Res.1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTUDIANTES LA PLATA RES · PPG 1.92

BOCA JUNIORS RES. · PPG 1.55

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.03, combined xG 1.94 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Estudiantes La Plata Res (H) 38.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +12.5%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.1%

Boca Juniors Res. (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estudiantes La Plata Res face Boca Juniors Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estudiantes La Plata Res a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Boca Juniors Res. 29%, so Estudiantes La Plata Res are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Estudiantes La Plata Res and 1.0 for Boca Juniors Res. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estudiantes La Plata Res are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.55 for Boca Juniors Res.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Estudiantes La Plata Res vs Boca Juniors Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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