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River Plate Res. vs Unión Santa Fe Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 00:30

River Plate Res.

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Unión Santa Fe Res.

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-18.7%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.6%1-112.0%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-18.2%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.5%3-13.8%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 63.7% 1.57 -18.5%

Draw 26.6% 27.8% 3.60 -2.5%

Away win 21.5% 21.1% 4.75 +1.3%

Over 2.5 43.1% 54.1% 1.85 -20.3%

Over 3.5 21.3% 31.8% 3.14 -19.9%

BTTS 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Home O1.5 38.0% 58.1% 1.72 -34.6%

Away O1.5 18.2% 24.1% 4.15 -14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.6%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 12.1%

#4 1–1 12.0%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

River Plate Res.1.4

Unión Santa Fe Res.0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RIVER PLATE RES. · PPG 1.92

UNIÓN SANTA FE RES. · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

River Plate Res. (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -18.5%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.5%

Unión Santa Fe Res. (A) 21.5%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

River Plate Res. face Unión Santa Fe Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives River Plate Res. a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Unión Santa Fe Res. 22%, so River Plate Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for River Plate Res. and 0.7 for Unión Santa Fe Res. (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, River Plate Res. are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.18 for Unión Santa Fe Res.. This match finished 2-2.

River Plate Res. vs Unión Santa Fe Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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