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Vélez Sársfield Res. vs Atlético Tucumán Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 18:00

Vélez Sársfield Res.

PPG 2.31 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Atlético Tucumán Res.

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-13.2%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.8%1-17.5%1-22.4%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-18.8%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.0%3-17.0%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.4%4+-17.2%4+-22.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.8% 73.5% 1.36 -6.4%

Draw 20.5% 25.0% 4.00 -10.8%

Away win 10.8% 14.3% 7.00 -14.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Over 3.5 32.1% 38.2% 2.62 -15.9%

BTTS 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

Home O1.5 65.8% 69.4% 1.44 -5.3%

Away O1.5 17.1% 20.0% 5.00 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 69% / xG 2.4-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 14.0%

#2 3–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 1–1 7.5%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vélez Sársfield Res.2.4

Atlético Tucumán Res.0.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VÉLEZ SÁRSFIELD RES. · PPG 2.31

ATLÉTICO TUCUMÁN RES. · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.73 for Home, form 2.31 vs 1.33 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vélez Sársfield Res. (H) 68.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -6.4%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.8%

Atlético Tucumán Res. (A) 10.8%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vélez Sársfield Res. face Atlético Tucumán Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vélez Sársfield Res. a 69% chance, the draw 21% and Atlético Tucumán Res. 11%, so Vélez Sársfield Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Vélez Sársfield Res. and 0.6 for Atlético Tucumán Res. (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vélez Sársfield Res. are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.33 for Atlético Tucumán Res.. This match finished 2-0.

Vélez Sársfield Res. vs Atlético Tucumán Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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