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Sarmiento Res. vs Aldosivi Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 18:00

Sarmiento Res.

PPG 0.82 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Aldosivi Res.

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-19.4%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.9%1-112.6%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-18.4%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.8%3-13.8%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% 43.5% 2.30 +10.9%

Draw 27.8% 35.7% 2.80 -13.3%

Away win 24.0% 34.5% 2.90 -18.2%

Over 2.5 43.1% 42.6% 2.35 +1.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 23.3% 4.30 -6.6%

BTTS 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

Home O1.5 37.8% 38.3% 2.61 -1.3%

Away O1.5 23.3% 31.7% 3.15 -16.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 1–1 12.6%

#3 0–0✓ 11.8%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarmiento Res.1.3

Aldosivi Res.0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SARMIENTO RES. · PPG 0.82

ALDOSIVI RES. · PPG 0.58

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sarmiento Res. (H) 48.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +10.9%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.3%

Aldosivi Res. (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento Res. face Aldosivi Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento Res. a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Aldosivi Res. 24%, so Sarmiento Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sarmiento Res. and 0.8 for Aldosivi Res. (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento Res. are averaging 0.82 points per game versus 0.58 for Aldosivi Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Sarmiento Res. vs Aldosivi Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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