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Instituto Res. vs Argentinos Juniors Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 18:00

Instituto Res.

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Argentinos Juniors Res.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-112.7%0-25.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.4%1-113.4%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.1%2-17.1%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.9%3-12.5%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 35.7% 2.80 +12.3%

Draw 30.9% 36.4% 2.75 -15.0%

Away win 28.9% 40.8% 2.45 -17.5%

Over 2.5 43.0% 42.6% 2.35 +1.1%

Over 3.5 20.7% 38.2% 2.62 -27.5%

BTTS 47.2% 52.4% 1.91 -9.8%

Home O1.5 30.9% 50.5% 1.98 -38.8%

Away O1.5 25.0% 43.7% 2.29 -25.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.6%

#2 1–0 15.4%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Instituto Res.1.1

Argentinos Juniors Res.0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INSTITUTO RES. · PPG 1.36

ARGENTINOS JUNIORS RES. · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 1.92 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Instituto Res. (H) 40.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +12.3%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.0%

Argentinos Juniors Res. (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Instituto Res. face Argentinos Juniors Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Instituto Res. a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Argentinos Juniors Res. 29%, so Instituto Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Instituto Res. and 0.9 for Argentinos Juniors Res. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Instituto Res. are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.00 for Argentinos Juniors Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Instituto Res. vs Argentinos Juniors Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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